Kristin's crystal ball: MLB 2010 predictions

America's pastime has started its season and fanatics around the country are settling into several months of baseball bliss. I’ve personally been watching baseball as long as I can remember and have started shaping my predictions for the season, keeping in mind that all of these choices are subject to change, particularly after the All Star break. The readers should also be aware (if they aren’t already) that the author is more versed in the National League than the American League and that she is a St. Louis Cardinals fan.

The AL East is the most difficult to call. The obvious choice would be the Yankees, but their pitching rotation is not as strong as it has been in the past and not as strong as either the Red Sox or the Rays. They also have an unusually old team by baseball standards, and injuries may be an issue. I hesitate to count them out of the race entirely, as they never fail to put up a fight, but they seem like a better Wild Card candidate, as do the Red Sox. The Rays show a lot of promise, and with a bit of luck and some repeat performances from the past two years, their offense could easily pummel almost any other team. As a baseball fan, it’s refreshing to see a smaller team with smaller finances holding their own. Regardless of their accomplishments in 2008, they will always be an underdog, and that is one huge incentive that neither the Yankees nor Red Sox have. While I doubt the lead will be large, I predict the Rays taking the division and the Red Sox taking the Wild Card.

The AL Central will be a battle between the Twins and White Sox. The White Sox have a stronger pitching rotation, particularly with Jake Peavy. The Twins on the other hand have a solid lineup (think Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Denard Span as big bats with great cleanup prospect in JJ Hardy, Orlando Hudson and so on). The Twins lineup is arguably one of the best in the league overall. The White Sox, however, have some promising younger players who could step to the plate (pun intended) and really deliver for them, giving them the edge to win the division.

The top pick for the AL West has been the Mariners. Their weaknesses include the now injured Cliff Lee, who is slated to miss the first month or so of games. Lee, in combination with Felix Hernandez, comprise one of the best pitching duos in baseball (though as a Cardinals fan, I would say no better than the Carpenter-Wainwright duo). Their offense is another concern, as they had a very low team batting average last year despite their success. It is certainly not packed with power house hitters, but with training they are shaping up to be run-earners all the same. Their defense has been their strong suit for several seasons though. Their closest competition, the Angels, have lost a lot of their core players which could be very difficult to overcome, but they have one of the best managers in MLB, Tony LaRussa aside. The Angels have also won the division 5 times in the past 9 seasons, including the last 3. Though I originally put my faith in the Mariners, discussions with other baseball aficionados (one in particular) have tipped me towards the Angels with a small lead.

The National League East also seems quite clear cut in favor of the Phillies. They have done exceedingly well for themselves the past 2 years and have made some changes for the better. They are a formidable team to be wary of, particularly with Halladay in the rotation. Halladay is definitely in the running for a Cy Young award and has been a favorite by sports writers since spring training. Their offense is also in great form and features a solid core with Ryan Howard, a likely MVP candidate. Their bullpen is their weakest point, but with as many big bats as they have, its unlikely to affect their chances to any large extent. With the rest of the league in mind, the Phillies stand an excellent chance of getting to the World Series.

The NL Central is one of the weakest divisions in MLB this year. That being said, however, the Cardinals are almost assured a championship title. As a believer in many baseball superstitions, I’m terrified that I’ve now endangered the well-being of my own team, but let’s be honest. As long as Wainwright and Carpenter stay healthy, the Cy Young nominee and winner duo will undoubtedly put most strong offenses to rest. Albert Pujols is one of the best players in baseball and, even when in “poor form,” manages to get home run and RBI tallies infinitely higher than the average player. Additionally, Holliday and Rasmus have strengthened the offense by leaps and bounds and catcher Yadier Molina has continued to improve his hitting. Although most non-NL fans may not have noticed (Tony LaRussa could make even the worst team look amazing) the Cardinals have been slipping downhill the past 3 years, but this season will prove a great time to start climbing back to the top. The Cubs will give the Cardinals a run for the title in late July through early Aug. (the rivalry exists for a reason), but will not be able to beat the Cardinals in the end.

The NL West is the most difficult to call in the league. It will be a toss-up between the Dodgers and the Rockies. Though the Dodgers have been formidable the past 2 or 3 years, the Rockies have some young blood that could really help them push through. The first few games of the season were rough for the Dodgers, as was the pre-season, while the Rockies have a Cy Young candidate Ubaldo Jimenez and an excellent shortstop who will at least be mentioned in the MVP running, Troy Tulowitzki. Overall, the race will be tight, but the improved Rockies will likely squeak ahead of the Dodgers by a small margin.

The likely NL Wild Card is the Braves. Most experts are in agreement on this, as they have an excellent pitching staff overall (as compared to other teams who rely on solid 1-2 starters). They are well rounded and have a talented young outfielder, but their offense pales in comparison to the other likely division winners.

As for the World Series, it may be far away, but I think I could narrow it down to a few scenarios. Some experts have predicted another Cardinals-Red Sox series, like in 2004, but with the Cardinals winning as the Pujols-Holliday pairing just might overtake the Youkilis-Ortiz team. As much as I’d love to see it, the Cardinals would have to defeat the NL Wild Card (likely the Braves) and then the winner of the probable Phillies-Rockies matchup. Against the Rockies, the Cards are likely to have difficulty whereas playing the Phillies may prove a task they’re more capable of (particularly with comparable hitting and pitching). The White Sox are likely to drop out relatively early on in the ALDS, leaving the Angels and the Red Sox, Yankees or Rays (depending on who will claim the Wild Card). The Angels may not be a sufficient match up for any of their eastern counterparts, though I would not count them out entirely. I think a more likely series matchup will feature the Phillies against either the Red Sox or the Rays with the Phillies taking the title again.