The Reyes Dilemma

With the trademark smile, Jose Reyes has lit up a franchise buried in frowns. With a .333/.375/.472 line, he has lit up every other franchise in 2011 as well.

Come Winter, the most exciting player in the game is sure to be paid as such. The question is, by who?

For a cash-strapped ownership, the correlation between a franchise void of a face and ensuing ticket sales is daunting. For a fanbase which has endured a decade of growing pains from the son it cannot stay mad at, the idea of seeing him go on and fulfill his potential elsewhere is downright frightening.

So how can the Mets lose Jose Reyes?

Well, if you listen to Chris Rock, because “we ain’t got no money.”

And he may be right. But for the long-winded:

Mets GM Sandy Alderson is a stone-faced sabermetician, the anti-Minaya. It is not Alderson’s first rodeo, and in the case of Reyes he will say the right thing to the press (“we want to keep Reyes”) and do the right thing at the negotiating table, which is calculate to the dollar Reyes’ objective value, and offer Jose not a penny more than that.

And therein lies the problem. The Winter Meetings are a grown-up Toys R’ US for GM’s suffering from an excess of money and free time. Someone is likely to overpay for Reyes; that someone is not likely to be Sandy Alderson.

But Mets fans able to momentarily detach from emotion should appreciate Alderson’s potentially hard stance. Because the end-all, tell-all for sabermeticians is how many wins you produce for your team -- not popularity votes.

According to data courtesy of renowned economist David Berri and author of ‘Wages of Win’, Alderson has his priorities straight.

Through extensive regression analysis, Berri found that in the NBA — a league where the individual is far more marketable than he is in the MLB — team wins (Alderson) put more fans in the seats than individual All-Star votes (Reyes).

In other words, fans (even if it’s subciously) understand that no ‘I’ is bigger than the team.

Mets fans tired of seeing John Doe man the infield at Citi may claim to be the exception, but they’re not.

Those who still feel Reyes’ value is unquantifiable by objectivity and numbers should consider the flipside of the subjectivity argument.

To look even further beyond the numbers, consider the years of neglected responsibility weighing on the Mets’ shoulders each time they take the field at CitiField, and the disturbing contrast between the team’s .412 winning percentage at home and its .522 mark on the road.

Reyes’ greatest attribute may be a juvenile innocence and resulting immunity to an atmosphere in Queens which manager Terry Collins recently described as ‘tense.’

You can bet that once he signs that dotted line on a nine-figure deal, that immunity will be caput. Just ask Barry Zito, Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth.

Should the Mets lose out on Reyes, perhaps Alderson can take another sabermetric route.

The respective turnarounds of the 2008 Rays and 2009 Mariners put front offices in a frenzy to catch the new sabermetric lightning in a bottle – fielding specialists.

Of course, a stock undervalued at $20 becomes overvalued at $30. Just ask Brewers GM Doug Melvin. When the rest of the league got defensive on the expensive, Melvin got offensive on the cheap. As a result, the Brewers rank dead last in fielding percentage, but lead the NL Central at the plate and in the standings.

Another overvalued trend has developed with groundball pitchers. After all, groundball specialists are smiled upon for two main reasons:

1.) You can’t score from home on a ground ball

2.) You can get two outs on a ground ball, but only one on a fly ball.

But recent analysis reveals some of the game’s best pitchers to be the ones who rely most heavily on the fly ball. Flyball pitchers tend to produce more K’s than do groundball specialists, and as a result put fewer balls in play, significantly lessening their WHIP.

Of course, flyball pitchers are more prone to the long ball. The league average for FB/HR ratio is 10.6%.

But let me ask you: What is the FB/HR ratio at CitiField? Any Mets fan does not need advanced metrics to conclude the ratio is much, much lower in Flushing.

So, Citifield swallows the longball, and flyball pitchers are currently an undervalued commodity, thus it would make sense for Alderson to construct his team (and maximize wins) around elite, flyball pitchers (Johan Santana, who should regain his spot at the front end of the Mets rotation in 2012, has one of the league’s highest flyball rates).

Cy Young candidate Jered Weaver recently agreed to terms on an extension with the Angels; terms ($17 million per season) significantly less than what Weaver would have commanded had he hit the open market.

Why did Weaver agree to such a discount?

Because, according to Dave Cameron of Fangraphs.com, Weaver ranks 73rd out of 74 qualified starting pitchers in groundball rate since 2009. And because 2.8% fewer of Weaver’s flyballs leave Angels stadium than other ballparks.

Jered Weaver remained with the Angels because Angels stadium makes flyball pitchers look good.

Citifield makes them look great. Why wouldn’t Alderson be able to entice pitchers similarly allergic to the groundball at a discounted rate?

Should the Mets retain Reyes, well, this Mets fan will be among the first to the newstand to confirm the good news, grin almost as wide as that worn by No. 7.

But if they don’t, please read the above before you head towards the nearest bridge.